Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Cubs- Kyle TuckerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5White homered to left center (409 feet).3–4
- 4Albies homered to left (377 feet).2–4
- 4Olson scored on Imanaga wild pitch.1–4
- 4Olson scored on Imanaga wild pitch.1–4
- 3Happ reached on infield single to shortstop, Suzuki scored, Turner to second.0–4
- 3Tucker homered to left center (381 feet), Alcántara scored and Hoerner scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 61%
- ML ATL +145 / CHC -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -156
- ATL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.8 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +4 | ATL: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +63 Elo | CHC 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 26th of 3028–43 | Road vs home | 42–234th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150117th of 30 |
| 18th of 301502 | Elo rating | 15375th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–73 | 64–74 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 35–52 | 42–51 |
| Underdog | 30–21 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders | 67–71 | 69–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–5 CHC in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.