Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hurston WaldrepPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baldwin homered to left (368 feet), Fraley scored.3–1
- 8Olson grounded out to second, Bruján scored, Profar to second, Baldwin to third.1–1
- 4Marsh homered to right center (372 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML ATL +140 / PHI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- ATL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.8 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | −2 | ATL: Hurston Waldrep: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +39 Elo | PHI 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 3027–42 | Road vs home | 45–221st of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Elo rating | 15443rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–73 | 68–68 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 35–52 | 51–59 |
| Underdog | 28–21 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 66–70 | 61–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 20–22 PHI in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 42.