Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jurickson ProfarBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Derek HillBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching3.2 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Profar homered to right (397 feet).12–1
- 6Harris II homered to left (362 feet), Baldwin scored.11–1
- 5Hill doubled to left, Hicks scored.9–1
- 4Harris II singled to center, Albies scored.9–0
- 4Albies singled to right, Profar scored and Acuña Jr. scored, Albies to second.8–0
- 3Albies homered to right (391 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Baldwin scored.6–0
- 3Olson homered to center (426 feet), Profar scored.3–0
- 1Profar homered to right (350 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML ATL -125 / MIA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 52.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −11 | ATL: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +14 Elo | ATL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.525th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 24th of 3026–39 | Road vs home | 31–3626th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 147324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–72 | 74–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–52 | 6–21 |
| Underdog | 26–20 | 68–37 |
| Overs–unders | 64–68 | 64–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 25–13 MIA in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 38.