Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Acosta homered to center (399 feet).5–2
- 6Varsho homered to right center (423 feet), Kirk scored.5–1
- 2Sanoja homered to left center (397 feet).3–1
- 1France singled to right, Kirk scored and Varsho scored, France thrown out at second.3–0
- 1Varsho doubled to right, Bichette scored, Kirk to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML TOR -165 / MIA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -149
- MIA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.7 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −13 | TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +52 Elo | TOR 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 9th of 3032–33 | Road vs home | 29–3326th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 9th of 301521 | Elo rating | 147624th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–56 | 71–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–34 | 6–21 |
| Underdog | 41–22 | 65–35 |
| Overs–unders | 74–54 | 61–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–4 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.