New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Braves- Jurickson ProfarBatting3-4, 4 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Profar doubled to right, Albies scored and Bruján scored.12–7
- 9Bruján singled to left, Ozuna scored, Albies to third.12–5
- 8Acuña Jr. singled to right, Profar scored.12–4
- 8Profar reached on infield single to first, Alvarez Jr. scored.12–3
- 8J. Soto singled to center, Senger scored.12–2
- 8Senger singled to center, Baty scored and Mullins scored.11–2
- 7J. Soto homered to left (357 feet), Lindor scored.9–2
- 4Acuña Jr. homered to center (427 feet).7–2
- 4Taylor doubled to right, Vientos scored, Baty to third.7–1
- 4Vientos doubled to right, J. Soto scored.6–1
- 4Marte hit sacrifice fly to right, Lindor scored.5–1
- 3Profar singled to left, Alvarez Jr. scored.4–1
- 3Mullins tripled to center, Alonso scored and Baty scored.4–0
- 2J. Soto walked, Taylor scored, Lindor to second, Senger to third.2–0
- 2Senger singled to left, Baty scored, Taylor to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 51%
- ML NYM -105 / ATL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 50.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +1 | NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATL: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +4 Elo | ATL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 24th of 3026–36 | Road vs home | 32–3120th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 13th of 301514 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–69 | 58–69 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 34–56 | 33–50 |
| Underdog | 24–13 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 58–69 | 61–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 12–24 ATL in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 36.