Chicago White Sox at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Mike TauchmanBatting1-4
- Martin PerezPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Braves- Nacho Alvarez Jr.Batting2-3
- Hurston WaldrepPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 4Ozuna scored on error, Albies safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Montgomery.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML CHW +155 / ATL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 65.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -166
- CHW +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 5.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1428 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +14 | CHW: Martin Perez: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Hurston Waldrep: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +108 Elo | ATL 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 64.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 28th of 3019–45 | Road vs home | 31–3122nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 29th of 301428 | Elo rating | 150515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–53 | 58–68 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 33–49 |
| Underdog | 73–48 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 61–65 | 61–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 5–3 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.