Chicago White Sox at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting2-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yoendrys GomezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Braves- Jurickson ProfarBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Profar homered to right center (397 feet), Alvarez Jr. scored and Bruján scored.13–9
- 8Bruján singled to left, White scored, Alvarez Jr. to second.13–6
- 8Meidroth singled to center, Robert Jr. scored, Teel to second.13–5
- 7Mead singled to center, Meidroth scored, Baldwin to third.12–5
- 7Teel homered to right (392 feet).11–5
- 6Profar homered to right (378 feet), Albies scored.10–5
- 6Harris II homered to left (381 feet), Ozuna scored.10–3
- 6Sosa homered to left center (439 feet), Vargas scored and Montgomery scored.10–1
- 5Acuña Jr. grounded out to second, Profar scored, Olson to third.7–1
- 4Sosa singled to center, Tauchman scored.7–0
- 4Vargas hit sacrifice fly to right, Baldwin scored, Tauchman to third.6–0
- 4Tauchman doubled to right, Teel scored and Meidroth scored, Baldwin to third.5–0
- 4Robert Jr. homered to left (405 feet), Benintendi scored.3–0
- 3Baldwin homered to center (404 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML CHW +180 / ATL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 64.4%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -191
- CHW +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.5 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | CHW: Yoendrys Gomez: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +103 Elo | ATL 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 65.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3018–44 | Road vs home | 30–3021st of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150212th of 30 |
| 29th of 301426 | Elo rating | 150814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–53 | 58–66 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 33–47 |
| Underdog | 71–48 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 59–65 | 59–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–2 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.