Chicago White Sox at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Kyle TeelBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Braves- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching4.2 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Baldwin reached on infield single to second, Acuña Jr. scored and Olson scored, Harris II to third.10–11
- 7Alvarez Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Baldwin scored, Albies out at second.10–9
- 7Albies singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored and Ozuna scored, Baldwin to third.10–8
- 7Baldwin walked, Olson scored, Ozuna to second, Acuña Jr. to third.10–6
- 7Acuña Jr. singled to left, Profar scored, Olson to second.10–5
- 6Teel homered to right (358 feet), Vargas scored.10–4
- 5Robert Jr. doubled to left, Benintendi scored, Vargas scored and Sosa scored.8–4
- 5Sosa singled to right, Tauchman scored, Sosa to second, Vargas to third.5–4
- 5Vargas singled to left, Meidroth scored, Tauchman to second.4–4
- 4Profar homered to right (437 feet), Albies scored.3–4
- 3Teel doubled to right, Baldwin scored and Vargas scored.3–2
- 3Tauchman grounded out to second, Quero scored, Baldwin to third.1–2
- 1Harris II homered to center (421 feet), Olson scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML CHW +140 / ATL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 64.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- CHW +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +7 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +100 Elo | ATL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 28th of 3019–44 | Road vs home | 30–3123rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 29th of 301429 | Elo rating | 150416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–53 | 58–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 33–48 |
| Underdog | 72–48 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 60–65 | 60–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 5–2 ATL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.