Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Maximo AcostaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baldwin homered to center (412 feet).1–2
- 8Acosta homered to center (404 feet).0–2
- 5Johnston doubled to center, Lopez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML ATL -120 / MIA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 49.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- MIA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.8 – 3.7 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −3 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA 0 Elo | MIA 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 25th of 3025–38 | Road vs home | 30–3526th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 18th of 301501 | Elo rating | 147523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–71 | 73–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–51 | 6–21 |
| Underdog | 26–20 | 67–36 |
| Overs–unders | 63–67 | 63–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 24–12 MIA in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 36.