New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting2-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9McNeil homered to right center (387 feet).9–2
- 9Vientos homered to left center (414 feet).8–2
- 7Marte homered to left center (396 feet).7–2
- 7Vientos homered to left (414 feet).6–2
- 7Alonso homered to right (343 feet), J. Soto scored.5–2
- 4Baldwin grounded out to pitcher, Acuña Jr. scored, Harris II to second.3–2
- 4Ozuna hit sacrifice fly to center, Olson scored, Acuña Jr. to third.3–1
- 3McNeil homered to right (420 feet), Lindor scored and J. Soto scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML NYM -120 / ATL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +10 | NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +11 Elo | ATL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3027–36 | Road vs home | 32–3221st of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 150317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–69 | 58–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 34–56 | 33–51 |
| Underdog | 25–13 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 59–69 | 62–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 13–24 ATL in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 37.