Toronto Blue Jays at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting3-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 12Bichette singled to left, Springer scored.7–6
- 11Sanoja singled to right, Hill scored, Johnston to second.6–6
- 11Giménez singled to left, Straw scored.6–5
- 10Marsee doubled to center, Lopez scored.5–5
- 10France hit sacrifice fly to right, Bichette scored, Heineman to third.5–4
- 9Sanoja singled to left, Hill scored.4–4
- 7Lopez singled to center, Sanoja scored, Myers to second.4–3
- 7Sanoja doubled to left, Wagaman scored, Johnston thrown out at home.4–2
- 7Johnston singled to center, Hicks scored, Wagaman to third.4–1
- 7Springer homered to center (424 feet).4–0
- 6Straw walked, Bichette scored, France to second, Kirk to third.3–0
- 6Kirk doubled to right, Barger scored, Bichette to third.2–0
- 3Springer singled to right, Lukes scored, Giménez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML TOR -145 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -130
- MIA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +2 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +23 Elo | TOR 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3033–33 | Road vs home | 29–3426th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 9th of 301523 | Elo rating | 147424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–56 | 71–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–34 | 6–21 |
| Underdog | 41–22 | 65–36 |
| Overs–unders | 74–55 | 61–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–4 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.