Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-5
- Bryce ElderPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bohm hit sacrifice fly to right, Schwarber scored.1–2
- 4Marsh singled to right, Schwarber scored, Harper to second.1–1
- 2Profar singled to center, Murphy scored, Allen to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML ATL +165 / PHI -200
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.9%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -177
- ATL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.1 – 5.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +5 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +63 Elo | PHI 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 63.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 24th of 3027–40 | Road vs home | 43–222nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 15423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–73 | 68–66 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 35–52 | 51–57 |
| Underdog | 26–21 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 66–68 | 61–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 20–20 PHI in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 40.