Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Mets- Luis TorrensBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Torrens singled to center, Taylor scored, McNeil to third.3–13
- 8McNeil singled to right, Baty scored, Taylor to second.3–12
- 8Taylor singled to left, Marte scored, Baty to second.3–11
- 7Torrens homered to right center (381 feet), Nimmo scored and Taylor scored.3–10
- 7McNeil hit sacrifice fly to right, Baty scored.3–7
- 6Marte singled to center, Torrens scored, J. Soto to second.3–6
- 6Torrens doubled to center, Taylor scored.3–5
- 5Vientos doubled to right, J. Soto scored, Marte to third.3–4
- 4McNeil singled to left, Nimmo scored, McNeil to second, Taylor to third.3–3
- 4Nimmo singled to right, Vientos scored.3–2
- 4Vientos doubled to left, Alonso scored.3–1
- 3Bohm singled to right, Schwarber scored and Harper scored.3–0
- 1Schwarber grounded out to second, Turner scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML PHI -130 / NYM +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- NYM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 3.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +9 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +16 Elo | PHI 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 4th of 3034–32 | Road vs home | 40–248th of 30 |
| 30th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301546 | Elo rating | 151910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–64 | 60–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 50–56 | 35–57 |
| Underdog | 16–8 | 25–13 |
| Overs–unders | 58–72 | 60–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 17–19 NYM in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 36.
- Jun 22NYM 1 @ PHI 7Picked PHI 52%Hit
- Jun 21NYM 11 @ PHI 4Picked NYM 53%Hit
- Jun 20NYM 2 @ PHI 10Picked PHI 64%Hit
- Apr 23PHI 3 @ NYM 4Picked PHI 52%Miss
- Apr 22PHI 1 @ NYM 5Picked PHI 54%Miss
- Apr 21PHI 4 @ NYM 5Picked NYM 54%Hit
- Oct 9PHI 1 @ NYM 4PlayoffsPicked NYM 52%Hit
- Oct 8PHI 2 @ NYM 7PlayoffsPicked PHI 51%Miss