Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-3
- Taijuan WalkerPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vientos homered to left center (427 feet), Nimmo scored.0–6
- 5Vientos singled to center, Alonso scored, Nimmo to second.0–4
- 3Alonso singled to left, Lindor scored, J. Soto to third.0–3
- 3J. Soto singled to center, Senger scored, Lindor to third.0–2
- 3Lindor singled to center, Baty scored, Senger to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 58%
- ML PHI +130 / NYM -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -140
- PHI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 4.6 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −1 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +5 Elo | NYM 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 5th of 3034–34 | Road vs home | 42–248th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301541 | Elo rating | 15248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–65 | 61–71 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 50–57 | 35–58 |
| Underdog | 17–8 | 26–13 |
| Overs–unders | 60–72 | 62–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 17–21 NYM in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 38.