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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast

FinalNBC Sports Phil, MLB.TV, SNY, TBS

Away

Phillies

76-56

5–6

at

Home

Mets

71-61

PHI 50%NYM 50%

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Citi Field · NBC Sports Phil, MLB.TV, SNY, TBS

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.

NYM75%50%75%PHIStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Phillies
  • Harrison BaderBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Jesus LuzardoPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Mets
  • Pete AlonsoBatting4-5, 2 RBI
  • Sean ManaeaPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K

Scoring summary

  • 9Nimmo singled to center, Marte scored, Baty to second, Alonso to third.5–6
  • 8Bader homered to left (381 feet), Castellanos scored.5–5
  • 6Sosa reached on infield single to shortstop, Bohm scored.3–5
  • 5Nimmo hit sacrifice fly to center, Alonso scored.2–5
  • 5Vientos singled to right, Marte scored, Alonso to third.2–4
  • 5Alonso doubled to center, Lindor scored and J. Soto scored, Marte to third.2–3
  • 5J. Soto singled to center, Torrens scored, J. Soto to second, Lindor to second, Lindor safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Bader.2–1
  • 5Harper singled to left, Turner scored and Wilson scored, Schwarber to second.2–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Mets 50%

Toss-upHit
PHI 50%NYM 50%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
NYM 50%
ML PHI -110 / NYM -110
Pre-line forecast
NYM 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYM 47%
Ratings vs. market
−3.4 pts
NYM: Elo 46.6%, market 50.0%
Fair odds
NYM -100
PHI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
PHI 4.3 – 4.3 NYM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHINYMWhy
Team rating15421523Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−2−24PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 1.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsPHI +24 EloPHI 53.4%
Market-implied ratingsNYM 50.7%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYM 50.1%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYM 50.0%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

Try another venue →
Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets compared, with each team's league rank
PHIStatNYM
9th of 304.7Runs scored4.610th of 30
6th of 304.0Runs allowed4.213th of 30
7th of 30+0.7Margin+0.410th of 30
2nd of 307–3Last 106–46th of 30
5th of 3034–33Road vs home41–248th of 30
30th of 301493Opponent Elo149624th of 30
4th of 301542Elo rating15238th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PhilliesMets
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHINYM
Run line66–6561–70
Last 106–46–4
Favorite50–5735–57
Underdog16–826–13
Overs–unders59–7261–70
Overs–unders, last 106–47–3

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHI 17–20 NYM in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 37.