Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching3.1 IP, 9 ER, 0 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting4-6, 4 HR, 9 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sosa singled to left, Kepler scored, Bader to second.4–19
- 7Schwarber homered to right (407 feet), Bader scored and Sosa scored.4–18
- 6Olson homered to right center (378 feet).4–15
- 5Schwarber homered to left center (378 feet), Bader scored and Turner scored.3–15
- 4Bohm doubled to left, Realmuto scored and Harper scored.3–12
- 4Schwarber homered to right (383 feet), Turner scored.3–10
- 4Turner doubled to left, Stott scored.3–8
- 4Stott singled to right, Bader scored.3–7
- 3Harper homered to right center (442 feet).3–6
- 1Kepler homered to right center (399 feet), Bohm scored.3–5
- 1Realmuto homered to left (423 feet), Harper scored.3–3
- 1Schwarber homered to right (450 feet).3–1
- 1Harris II singled to right, Baldwin scored and Olson scored, Albies to third.3–0
- 1Albies walked, Profar scored, Baldwin to second, Olson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML ATL +150 / PHI -180
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -161
- ATL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 5.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −18 | ATL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +29 Elo | PHI 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 3027–39 | Road vs home | 42–223rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 16th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15384th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–72 | 67–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 35–52 | 50–57 |
| Underdog | 26–20 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 65–68 | 60–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 20–19 PHI in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 39.