Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kelly singled to left, Suzuki scored.6–7
- 8Kelly homered to left (389 feet), Happ scored.6–6
- 6Swanson doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored and Hoerner scored.6–4
- 5Shaw doubled to left, Swanson scored.6–2
- 5Alvarez Jr. doubled to right, Harris II scored.6–1
- 5Harris II doubled to right, Albies scored and Baldwin scored.5–1
- 4Happ homered to right center (393 feet).3–1
- 3Harris II singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored and Baldwin scored, Albies to third.3–0
- 1Albies singled to right, Olson scored, Baldwin to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML ATL +105 / CHC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- ATL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.6 – 3.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −15 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +48 Elo | CHC 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 25th of 3028–42 | Road vs home | 41–235th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 18th of 301503 | Elo rating | 15365th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–73 | 64–73 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 35–52 | 42–50 |
| Underdog | 29–21 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders | 66–71 | 68–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–4 CHC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.