Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ha-Seong KimBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Willi CastroBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Albies homered to left (369 feet).5–1
- 7Alvarez Jr. singled to right, White scored.4–1
- 7Kim homered to left center (391 feet), Albies scored and M. Harris II scored.3–1
- 2Castro singled to right, Happ scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML ATL +130 / CHC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- ATL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.9 – 4.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +6 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +60 Elo | CHC 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 27th of 3028–44 | Road vs home | 43–233rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Elo rating | 15385th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–73 | 64–75 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 35–52 | 42–52 |
| Underdog | 31–21 | 22–23 |
| Overs–unders | 67–72 | 69–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–6 CHC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.