Seattle Mariners at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Leo RivasBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Baldwin singled to right, Albies scored.1–4
- 8Albies tripled to second, Olson scored.1–3
- 8Olson singled to center, Profar scored.1–2
- 7Rivas singled to center, Polanco scored, Canzone to third.1–1
- 1Kim hit sacrifice fly to center, Profar scored, Olson to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML SEA +105 / ATL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.6 – 3.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +28 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 1.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +44 Elo | ATL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 20th of 3032–39 | Road vs home | 33–3322nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 14th of 301511 | Elo rating | 150416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–84 | 67–73 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 26–63 | 35–52 |
| Underdog | 30–21 | 32–21 |
| Overs–unders | 77–63 | 67–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 3–3 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.