Seattle Mariners at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Braves- Jurickson ProfarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan DoddPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9M. Harris II hit sacrifice fly to left, Albies scored.18–2
- 9Suárez homered to left (411 feet), Canzone scored.18–1
- 9Raleigh homered to center (426 feet), Robles scored and Arozarena scored.16–1
- 9Arozarena singled to right, Ford scored, Robles to third.13–1
- 9Raley scored on Muñoz wild pitch, Robles to second on wild pitch by Muñoz, Ford to third on wild pitch by Muñoz.12–1
- 9Raley scored on Muñoz wild pitch, Robles to second on wild pitch by Muñoz, Ford to third on wild pitch by Muñoz.12–1
- 6Suárez homered to left (374 feet).11–1
- 4Profar homered to right (395 feet).10–1
- 4Polanco hit sacrifice fly to center, Rodríguez scored.10–0
- 3Arozarena singled to left, Garver scored and Crawford scored.9–0
- 3Naylor homered to right center (385 feet).7–0
- 3Polanco homered to left (348 feet), Rodríguez scored.6–0
- 3Rodríguez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Arozarena scored on error, Robles scored on fielding error by third baseman Alvarez Jr. and Raleigh scored, Rodríguez second.4–0
- 2Garver tripled to center, Naylor scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML SEA -115 / ATL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 48.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −9 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +14 Elo | ATL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 19th of 3033–40 | Road vs home | 34–3422nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 13th of 301513 | Elo rating | 150218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–85 | 68–74 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 26–63 | 36–53 |
| Underdog | 31–22 | 32–21 |
| Overs–unders | 78–64 | 68–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–4 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.