St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Leo RivasBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 13Rivas homered to right (361 feet), Naylor scored.2–4
- 11Polanco doubled to right, Naylor scored.2–2
- 11Saggese singled to left, Contreras scored.2–1
- 2Canzone hit sacrifice fly to left, Naylor scored.1–1
- 1Herrera homered to left center (411 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 66%
- ML STL +180 / SEA -215
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.3%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -191
- STL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −2 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +58 Elo | SEA 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3031–40 | Road vs home | 43–279th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301478 | Elo rating | 152011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–78 | 60–85 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–46 | 28–63 |
| Underdog | 44–32 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders | 77–69 | 80–65 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–6 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.