Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Andrew VaughnBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Pirates- Cam DevanneyBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching2.2 IP, 9 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Devanney doubled to left, Bae scored.10–2
- 7Jansen grounded out to third, Bauers scored, Perkins to second, Vaughn to third.10–1
- 3Turang singled to right, Perkins scored and Ortiz scored.9–1
- 3Ortiz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Vaughn scored, Jansen out at second, Perkins to third.7–1
- 3Perkins doubled to left, Bauers scored, Vaughn to third.6–1
- 2Peguero singled to center, McCutchen scored.5–1
- 2Jansen scored on Chandler wild pitch, Ortiz to third on wild pitch by Chandler.5–0
- 2Jansen scored on Chandler wild pitch, Ortiz to third on wild pitch by Chandler.5–0
- 1Durbin grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Bauers scored, Vaughn out at second.4–0
- 1Vaughn singled to right, Contreras scored, Bauers to third.3–0
- 1Bauers doubled to right, Turang scored and Collins scored, Contreras to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML MIL -135 / PIT +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 3.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −5 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Bubba Chandler (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +63 Elo | MIL 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3042–29 | Road vs home | 42–3214th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301573 | Elo rating | 147924th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–63 | 76–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 39–43 | 17–27 |
| Underdog | 41–20 | 59–40 |
| Overs–unders | 70–73 | 60–83 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 24–14 PIT in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 38.