Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Weston WilsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Isaac CollinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wilson homered to left center (444 feet), Castellanos scored.3–6
- 5Turner singled to right, Castellanos scored, Sosa to third.1–6
- 4Turang doubled to left, Bauers scored.0–6
- 1Collins homered to right (358 feet), Contreras scored and Frelick scored.0–5
- 1Frelick singled to center, Chourio and Turang scored on throwing error by center fielder Bader, Contreras to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML PHI -115 / MIL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 42.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −5 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +53 Elo | MIL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 7th of 3035–35 | Road vs home | 45–254th of 30 |
| 30th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 15701st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–69 | 77–62 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 51–60 | 36–42 |
| Underdog | 18–9 | 41–20 |
| Overs–unders | 62–76 | 69–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 7–9 MIL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.