Milwaukee Brewers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 5Straw singled to center, Giménez scored and Heineman scored.4–8
- 5Heineman doubled to center, Clement scored, Giménez to third.4–6
- 4Guerrero Jr. reached on infield single to shortstop, Springer scored, Barger to second.4–5
- 3Contreras singled to right, Chourio scored.4–4
- 3Turang homered to left (355 feet).3–4
- 2Springer doubled to center, Straw scored, Springer to third.2–4
- 1Clement singled to right, Lukes scored.2–3
- 1Lukes doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored and Springer scored.2–2
- 1Contreras homered to left (365 feet), Chourio scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML MIL -115 / TOR -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.8 – 3.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | 0 | MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +47 Elo | MIL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 3040–28 | Road vs home | 44–244th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 1st of 301575 | Elo rating | 15199th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–60 | 74–62 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 36–41 | 32–40 |
| Underdog | 41–19 | 41–22 |
| Overs–unders | 67–70 | 80–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–3 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.