Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Giménez scored and Lukes scored.4–10
- 6Lukes doubled to center, Kirk scored and Clement scored, Giménez to third.4–8
- 6Wallner homered to right (432 feet), Larnach scored.4–6
- 6Lee grounded out to shortstop, Buxton scored, Larnach to second.2–6
- 4Springer singled to center, Giménez scored.1–6
- 4Wallner homered to right center (419 feet).1–5
- 2Giménez homered to right center (422 feet).0–5
- 1Kirk homered to right center (389 feet), Bichette scored.0–4
- 1Varsho hit sacrifice fly to center, Lukes scored.0–2
- 1Bichette singled to left, Springer scored, Lukes to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML MIN +120 / TOR -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 58.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -130
- MIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +2 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +57 Elo | TOR 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 25th of 3026–40 | Road vs home | 42–211st of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 24th of 301472 | Elo rating | 15229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–67 | 73–58 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 31–40 | 31–36 |
| Underdog | 32–26 | 41–22 |
| Overs–unders | 60–70 | 76–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 10–7 TOR in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.