Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-3
- Taj BradleyPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yoendrys GomezPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Quero singled to center, Teel scored, Montgomery to second.0–8
- 2Montgomery homered to right (423 feet), Robert Jr. scored.0–7
- 2Robert Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Vargas scored on throwing error by second baseman Keaschall, Teel out at second.0–5
- 2Teel singled to left, Tauchman scored, Vargas to second.0–4
- 1Quero singled to center, Teel scored and Vargas scored, Robert Jr. to second.0–3
- 1Teel singled to right, Tauchman scored, Vargas to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML MIN -115 / CHW -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 55.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- CHW +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.8 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −12 | MIN: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Yoendrys Gomez: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +38 Elo | MIN 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 25th of 3026–39 | Road vs home | 27–3727th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301475 | Elo rating | 142929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–66 | 75–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–40 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 32–25 | 74–49 |
| Overs–unders | 60–69 | 63–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 26–8 CHW in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 34.