Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Thomas HatchPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Robert Jr. homered to left center (427 feet).3–7
- 7Lewis homered to left center (387 feet).3–6
- 4Wallner homered to right (366 feet).2–6
- 2Montgomery homered to right center (412 feet), Meidroth scored, Teel scored and Vargas scored.1–6
- 2Vargas walked, Robert Jr. scored, Teel to second, Meidroth to third.1–2
- 2Meidroth singled to center, Benintendi scored, Robert Jr. to third.1–1
- 2Clemens homered to right center (374 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 50%
- ML MIN -110 / CHW -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- CHW: Elo 43.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CHW -100
- MIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.8 – 4.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −2 | MIN: Mick Abel: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +43 Elo | MIN 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 25th of 3026–38 | Road vs home | 26–3727th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301478 | Elo rating | 142629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–65 | 74–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–40 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 32–24 | 74–49 |
| Overs–unders | 59–69 | 62–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 26–7 CHW in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 33.