Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zebby MatthewsPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Buxton singled to right, Lee scored, Lewis to third.9–7
- 8Sosa singled to center, Tauchman scored, Teel to second, Vargas to third.8–7
- 8Teel singled to right, Quero scored, Vargas to second, Tauchman to third.8–6
- 8Vargas walked, Meidroth scored, Tauchman to second, Quero to third.8–5
- 7Julien singled to left, Lee scored, Julien to second.8–4
- 7Lee grounded into fielder's choice to second, Jeffers scored on error, Lee second.7–4
- 6Keaschall singled to right, Buxton scored, Larnach to second.6–4
- 6Larnach singled to center, Lewis scored, Buxton to third.5–4
- 5Montgomery homered to center (399 feet), Teel scored.4–4
- 4Quero singled to left, Montgomery scored, Benintendi to second.4–2
- 4Lewis homered to left center (386 feet), Jeffers scored, Lee scored and Outman scored.4–1
- 1Sosa singled to left, Vargas scored, Teel to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 54%
- ML MIN -130 / CHW +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.4 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1427 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +2 | MIN: Zebby Matthews: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +17 Elo | MIN 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.627th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3025–38 | Road vs home | 26–3627th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301477 | Elo rating | 142729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–65 | 74–53 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 30–40 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 32–24 | 74–48 |
| Overs–unders | 58–69 | 61–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 25–7 CHW in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 32.