Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting4-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Varsho doubled to center, Springer scored.7–5
- 9Wallner homered to right center (394 feet), Martin scored and Lee scored.7–4
- 9Gasper homered to right (387 feet).4–4
- 7Lee sacrificed into double play, right to second to shortstop, Gasper scored, Martin doubled off second.3–4
- 6Keaschall homered to left center (401 feet), Lee scored.2–4
- 5Springer homered to left center (445 feet).0–4
- 2Springer homered to left center (433 feet).0–3
- 1Kirk singled to right, Lukes scored, Bichette to third.0–2
- 1Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Springer scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML MIN +170 / TOR -205
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 59.3%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -181
- MIN +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.6 – 4.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −12 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +65 Elo | TOR 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 27th of 3026–41 | Road vs home | 43–211st of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 25th of 301469 | Elo rating | 15248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–68 | 74–58 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–40 | 32–36 |
| Underdog | 32–27 | 41–22 |
| Overs–unders | 61–70 | 77–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 10–8 TOR in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.