Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Collins hit sacrifice fly to right, Lockridge scored.8–9
- 8Perdomo doubled to center, Moreno scored, Vargas to third.8–8
- 8Vargas singled to center, McCann scored, Moreno to second.7–8
- 7Carroll doubled to left, Perdomo scored.6–8
- 7Marte hit sacrifice fly to center, Thomas scored.5–8
- 7Perdomo singled to center, McCarthy scored, Thomas to third.4–8
- 6Turang homered to right center (403 feet), Monasterio scored.3–8
- 4Moreno homered to center (406 feet), Marte scored and Smith scored.3–6
- 3Perkins singled to right, Seigler scored.0–6
- 3Seigler doubled to left, Collins scored and Yelich scored.0–5
- 3Contreras homered to left (441 feet), Turang scored.0–3
- 1Vaughn hit sacrifice fly to left, Contreras scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 61%
- ML ARI +145 / MIL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -156
- ARI +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −5 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +82 Elo | MIL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 19th of 3030–36 | Road vs home | 44–221st of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15731st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–67 | 75–57 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–45 | 36–38 |
| Underdog | 35–22 | 39–19 |
| Overs–unders | 68–64 | 64–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 12–7 MIL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.