Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce JarvisPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Andruw MonasterioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Durbin homered to left (378 feet).5–7
- 6Gurriel Jr. homered to left (380 feet), Marte scored and Carroll scored.5–6
- 6Carroll reached on infield single to third, Perdomo scored, Marte to second.2–6
- 6Marte singled to right, Thomas scored, Perdomo to third.1–6
- 4Monasterio homered to left center (404 feet).0–6
- 3Frelick grounded out to second, Contreras scored, Vaughn to second, Yelich to third.0–5
- 3Yelich singled to left, Monasterio scored and Turang scored, Contreras to second.0–4
- 3Turang singled to center, Perkins scored, Monasterio to second.0–2
- 3Monasterio singled to center, Collins scored, Perkins to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 63%
- ML ARI +160 / MIL -190
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 63.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -170
- ARI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.7 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +11 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +97 Elo | MIL 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 19th of 3030–35 | Road vs home | 43–222nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 16th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–66 | 74–57 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–45 | 35–38 |
| Underdog | 35–21 | 39–19 |
| Overs–unders | 67–64 | 63–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 12–6 MIL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.