Milwaukee Brewers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Myles StrawBatting3-3
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Collins doubled to left, Frelick scored.4–1
- 9Yelich homered to left center (390 feet).3–1
- 9Chourio homered to right (361 feet).2–1
- 7Frelick grounded out to pitcher, Yelich scored.1–1
- 6Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Springer scored, Barger to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML MIL +115 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 44.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +4 | MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +36 Elo | MIL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 1st of 3039–28 | Road vs home | 44–233rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 30 |
| 1st of 301573 | Elo rating | 15209th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–60 | 74–61 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 36–41 | 32–39 |
| Underdog | 40–19 | 41–22 |
| Overs–unders | 67–69 | 80–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–3 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.