Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Barger doubled to right, Springer scored and Kirk scored.8–9
- 8France homered to left center (420 feet).8–7
- 6Giménez doubled to right, Schneider scored, Lukes to third.8–6
- 5Lewis singled to right, Clemens scored.8–5
- 5Lee homered to left (393 feet).7–5
- 4Giménez homered to right center (401 feet).6–5
- 4Schneider homered to left (388 feet).6–4
- 4Jeffers singled to left, Buxton scored, Jeffers thrown out at second.6–3
- 4Julien doubled to center, Julien scored on throwing error by catcher Heineman and Martin scored on error.5–3
- 3Bichette singled to left, Giménez scored and Springer scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.3–3
- 3Keaschall homered to left center (395 feet).3–1
- 3Buxton homered to left center (377 feet).2–1
- 2Schneider homered to left (366 feet).1–1
- 1Buxton homered to center (404 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 63%
- ML MIN +160 / TOR -190
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -170
- MIN +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 5.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +16 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +76 Elo | TOR 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 25th of 3027–41 | Road vs home | 43–222nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 25th of 301471 | Elo rating | 15229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–68 | 74–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 31–40 | 32–37 |
| Underdog | 33–27 | 41–22 |
| Overs–unders | 62–70 | 78–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 11–8 TOR in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.