Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Nabil CrismattPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 3Collins singled to center, Contreras scored and Turang scored.6–4
- 3Thomas singled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored and Alexander scored.6–2
- 3Locklear grounded out to second, Carroll scored, Alexander to second, Gurriel Jr. to third.4–2
- 2Monasterio grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Collins scored, Jansen out at second.3–2
- 2Vargas singled to center, Alexander scored and Moreno scored, Locklear to second.3–1
- 2Locklear hit by pitch, Gurriel Jr. scored, Alexander to second, Moreno to third.1–1
- 1Frelick homered to right (377 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 59%
- ML ARI +135 / MIL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -145
- ARI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −2 | ARI: Nabil Crismatt: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +82 Elo | MIL 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 18th of 3031–37 | Road vs home | 45–232nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149623rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–67 | 75–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 30–45 | 36–40 |
| Underdog | 37–22 | 39–19 |
| Overs–unders | 69–65 | 65–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 13–8 MIL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.