Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras homered to left (395 feet).3–2
- 8Perdomo homered to right (358 feet).3–1
- 6Alexander homered to right center (361 feet), Perdomo scored.2–1
- 2Bauers grounded out to second, Vaughn scored, Perkins to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML ARI +120 / MIL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -130
- ARI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −17 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Aaron Ashby: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +73 Elo | MIL 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 19th of 3030–37 | Road vs home | 45–221st of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 16th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15741st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–67 | 75–58 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–45 | 36–39 |
| Underdog | 36–22 | 39–19 |
| Overs–unders | 69–64 | 65–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 12–8 MIL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.