Milwaukee Brewers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Andrew VaughnBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Shane BieberPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Schneider singled to left, Bichette scored and Straw scored, Kirk to second.7–2
- 7Vaughn singled to right, Contreras scored.7–0
- 7Yelich grounded out to second, Turang scored.6–0
- 6Collins doubled to right, Durbin scored and Vaughn scored.5–0
- 6Durbin singled to right, Yelich scored, Vaughn to second.3–0
- 6Vaughn singled to left, Turang scored, Yelich to second.2–0
- 6Monasterio homered to left (350 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML MIL +120 / TOR -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 47.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -130
- MIL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +11 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Shane Bieber: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +21 Elo | MIL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 3038–28 | Road vs home | 44–221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 1st of 301570 | Elo rating | 15239th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–60 | 74–60 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 36–41 | 32–38 |
| Underdog | 39–19 | 41–22 |
| Overs–unders | 66–69 | 79–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–3 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.