Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bader singled to right, Realmuto scored, Marsh thrown out at third.10–8
- 9Marsh singled to right, Stubbs scored, Realmuto to third.9–8
- 8Collins singled to left, Chourio scored and Contreras scored, Yelich to third.8–8
- 8Stott doubled to right, Bader scored.8–6
- 8Bader doubled to left, Marsh scored.7–6
- 6Durbin scored on error, Chourio safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Stott, Turang to second.6–6
- 6Sosa hit sacrifice fly to right, Bader scored.6–5
- 6Kepler hit sacrifice fly to center, Marsh scored, Bader to third.5–5
- 6Bader doubled to left, Realmuto scored, Marsh to third.4–5
- 5Turner tripled to right, Kepler scored and Stott scored.3–5
- 4Chourio hit sacrifice fly to left, Frelick scored, Ortiz to third.1–5
- 4Harper homered to center (406 feet).1–4
- 2Durbin homered to left (407 feet).0–4
- 1Perkins doubled to right, Yelich scored and Contreras scored.0–3
- 1Turang homered to center (426 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML PHI +125 / MIL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -135
- PHI +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.9 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −11 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +43 Elo | MIL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 3034–35 | Road vs home | 45–243rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 15721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–69 | 77–61 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 51–60 | 36–41 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 41–20 |
| Overs–unders | 61–76 | 68–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–9 MIL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.