Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting2-4
- Mitch KellerPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cruz grounded out to second, Reynolds scored, N. Gonzales to third.4–1
- 8Chourio homered to left (365 feet), Frelick scored.4–0
- 4Bauers homered to right center (382 feet), Contreras scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML MIL -150 / PIT +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -135
- PIT +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −8 | MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +83 Elo | MIL 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.730th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3041–29 | Road vs home | 42–3113th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301571 | Elo rating | 148022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–63 | 76–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 38–43 | 17–27 |
| Underdog | 41–20 | 59–39 |
| Overs–unders | 70–72 | 60–82 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 23–14 PIT in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 37.