Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Andrew VaughnBatting3-4
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stott doubled to right, Bader scored.2–0
- 7Turner singled to left, Bohm scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML PHI -105 / MIL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- PHI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.7 – 3.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +5 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +42 Elo | MIL 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 8th of 3035–36 | Road vs home | 46–253rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 15721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–70 | 78–62 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 51–60 | 37–42 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 41–20 |
| Overs–unders | 63–76 | 70–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 7–10 MIL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.