Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rojas singled to left, Conforto scored, Pages to second.3–5
- 9Pages reached on infield single to shortstop, T. Hernández scored, Conforto to second.2–5
- 9Betts homered to left (385 feet).1–5
- 5Canario grounded out to first, McCutchen scored, Yorke to third.0–5
- 5Yorke doubled to left, N. Gonzales scored and Reynolds scored, McCutchen to third.0–4
- 5Reynolds singled to left, Triolo scored, Reynolds to second, N. Gonzales to third.0–2
- 3Pham singled to left, Reynolds scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 51%
- ML LAD -115 / PIT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.3 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +15 | LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +50 Elo | LAD 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.730th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 16th of 3031–35 | Road vs home | 41–3014th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301546 | Elo rating | 148023rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–81 | 75–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 45–73 | 16–27 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 59–38 |
| Overs–unders | 70–69 | 59–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 10–8 PIT in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.