Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ildemaro VargasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vargas homered to right center (423 feet), Alexander scored and Locklear scored.6–1
- 7Betts singled to center, Call scored, Ohtani to third.3–1
- 7Moreno hit sacrifice fly to center, Gurriel Jr. scored on error and Alexander scored on throwing error by center fielder Pages.3–0
- 7Carroll homered to right center (390 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 66%
- ML ARI +185 / LAD -225
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.2%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -197
- ARI +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.5 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +1 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +65 Elo | LAD 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 15th of 3033–37 | Road vs home | 44–256th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149627th of 30 |
| 14th of 301510 | Elo rating | 15522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–67 | 58–77 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 30–45 | 45–69 |
| Underdog | 39–22 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 70–66 | 69–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 18–19 LAD in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 37.