Pittsburgh Pirates at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Alexander CanarioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Canario homered to left center (471 feet).2–5
- 6Rafaela reached on infield single to shortstop, Lowe scored, González to second.1–5
- 5Duran scored on an inside-the-park home run (266 feet), Narváez scored and Bregman scored.1–4
- 5Anthony grounded out to shortstop, González scored, Narváez to third.1–1
- 4N. Gonzales scored, Cruz to second, McCutchen to third on wild pitch by Giolito.1–0
- 4N. Gonzales scored on Giolito wild pitch, Cruz to second on wild pitch by Giolito, McCutchen to third on wild pitch by Giolito.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 62%
- ML PIT +150 / BOS -180
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 62.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -161
- PIT +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +10 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +86 Elo | BOS 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–46 | Road vs home | 41–2710th of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301477 | Elo rating | 15297th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–64 | 71–66 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–27 | 33–47 |
| Underdog | 57–37 | 38–19 |
| Overs–unders | 58–79 | 68–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–3 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 8.