Pittsburgh Pirates at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Carlos NarvaezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCutchen scored on Hicks wild pitch, N. Gonzales to third on wild pitch by Hicks.10–3
- 9McCutchen scored on Hicks wild pitch, N. Gonzales to third on wild pitch by Hicks.10–3
- 6González singled to right, Story scored, Yoshida to second.9–3
- 6N. Gonzales singled to center, Horwitz scored and Reynolds scored, Pham to third.9–2
- 6Horwitz singled to center, Bart scored and Triolo scored on throwing error by center fielder Rafaela, Horwitz to second.7–2
- 6Cruz homered to center (426 feet).5–2
- 5Pham singled to left, Horwitz scored, Reynolds to second.4–2
- 5Reynolds singled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored and Triolo scored, Horwitz to third.3–2
- 4González singled to center, Story scored.1–2
- 3Narváez homered to left (401 feet).1–1
- 1Pham grounded out to third, Triolo scored, Reynolds to second, Horwitz to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 62%
- ML PIT +150 / BOS -180
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -161
- PIT +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −9 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Dustin May: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +75 Elo | BOS 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 59.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 28th of 3021–46 | Road vs home | 41–269th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 30 |
| 24th of 301473 | Elo rating | 15337th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–64 | 71–65 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–27 | 33–46 |
| Underdog | 56–37 | 38–19 |
| Overs–unders | 57–79 | 67–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–3 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 7.