Pittsburgh Pirates at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Roman AnthonyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Payton TollePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Davis hit sacrifice bunt, Simon scored, Horwitz to second.4–2
- 6McCutchen doubled to center, Pham scored.3–2
- 6Pham doubled to center, Reynolds scored and N. Gonzales scored.2–2
- 5Anthony homered to right (408 feet).0–2
- 4Rafaela reached on infield single to third, Yoshida scored on throwing error by third baseman Kiner-Falefa, Rafaela to second, González to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML PIT +100 / BOS -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 3.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −5 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Payton Tolle (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +62 Elo | BOS 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 28th of 3020–46 | Road vs home | 41–259th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 25th of 301471 | Elo rating | 15357th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–64 | 71–64 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–27 | 33–45 |
| Underdog | 55–37 | 38–19 |
| Overs–unders | 57–78 | 67–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–3 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 6.