Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani doubled to left, Kim scored.7–9
- 8N. Gonzales singled to center, Triolo scored.6–9
- 7Cruz grounded out to shortstop, Pham scored.6–8
- 7Smith singled to center, Freeman scored.6–7
- 7Betts grounded out to shortstop, Rojas scored, Ohtani to third.5–7
- 6Triolo doubled to center, Davis scored and Horwitz scored.4–7
- 6Davis singled to right, McCutchen scored, Horwitz to second.4–5
- 4Pages homered to left center (418 feet).4–4
- 3T. Hernández singled to center, Freeman scored, Smith to third.3–4
- 3Ohtani homered to right (373 feet).2–4
- 2Pages grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Smith scored, Conforto out at second, T. Hernández to third.1–4
- 1Canario hit sacrifice fly to right, Pham scored.0–4
- 1McCutchen reached on infield single to pitcher, Reynolds scored, Pham to third.0–3
- 1Pham doubled to right, Triolo scored and N. Gonzales scored, Reynolds to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML LAD -175 / PIT +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.4%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -156
- PIT +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 3.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −1 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +59 Elo | LAD 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3031–33 | Road vs home | 39–3014th of 30 |
| 27th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301550 | Elo rating | 147623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–79 | 73–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 45–71 | 16–27 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 57–38 |
| Overs–unders | 69–68 | 58–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 10–6 PIT in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.