Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith homered to left center (422 feet).4–5
- 8Carroll homered to left center (380 feet), Perdomo scored and Marte scored.4–4
- 5Pages singled to left, Betts scored.1–4
- 4Rojas singled to right, Call scored, Freeland to third.1–3
- 4Del Castillo singled to right, Marte scored, Carroll to third.1–2
- 1Pages grounded out to shortstop, Betts scored, Freeman to third.0–2
- 1Freeman doubled to center, Ohtani scored, Betts to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 67%
- ML ARI +195 / LAD -235
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.7%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -207
- ARI +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 5.5 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +1 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +61 Elo | LAD 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 3034–37 | Road vs home | 44–267th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 13th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15492nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–67 | 58–78 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–45 | 45–70 |
| Underdog | 40–22 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 70–67 | 69–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 19–19 LAD in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 38.