Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5
- Emmet SheehanPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bart doubled to right, N. Gonzales scored.0–3
- 2McCutchen homered to left (408 feet).0–2
- 1Reynolds homered to right center (404 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 60%
- ML LAD -165 / PIT +140
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -149
- PIT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 3.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +14 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +35 Elo | LAD 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.730th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 14th of 3031–34 | Road vs home | 40–3014th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301548 | Elo rating | 147823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 58–80 | 74–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 45–72 | 16–27 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 58–38 |
| Overs–unders | 70–68 | 59–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 10–7 PIT in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.