Milwaukee Brewers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 K
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tellez grounded out to second, Burger scored, Osuna to second, Higashioka to third.3–6
- 6Hoskins singled to left, Durbin scored, Jansen to second.3–5
- 5Burger homered to center (420 feet), Smith scored.2–5
- 3Smith scored on a balk, Pederson to second on a balk.2–3
- 3Smith scored on a balk, Pederson to second on a balk.2–3
- 3Pederson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Helman scored, Langford out at second, Smith to third.2–2
- 2Burger homered to center (432 feet).2–1
- 1Chourio homered to left center (409 feet).2–0
- 1Turang homered to center (435 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML MIL -125 / TEX +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.9 – 3.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +1 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +39 Elo | MIL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 1st of 3043–31 | Road vs home | 46–287th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 1st of 301571 | Elo rating | 15219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–64 | 76–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–44 | 35–42 |
| Underdog | 42–20 | 41–28 |
| Overs–unders | 72–74 | 65–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–2 TEX in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.