Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Diaz grounded out to third, Walker scored.2–4
- 6Burger homered to right center (364 feet), Jung scored.1–4
- 6Jung doubled to center, Freeman scored.1–2
- 6Peña singled to left, Dubón scored.1–1
- 2Heim struck out swinging, Moore scored on error, Heim safe at first on throwing error by catcher Diaz.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML HOU -150 / TEX +125
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -135
- TEX +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.6 – 3.9 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −14 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +4 Elo | TEX 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3035–33 | Road vs home | 43–2810th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 14th of 301511 | Elo rating | 151612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–73 | 74–69 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 32–57 | 35–41 |
| Underdog | 38–16 | 39–28 |
| Overs–unders | 68–75 | 64–79 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 23–19 TEX in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 42.