Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Alejandro OsunaBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Jacob LatzPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nabil CrismattPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Heim grounded out to second, Duran scored.3–5
- 7Marte homered to left center (414 feet), Barrosa scored and Lawlar scored.2–5
- 6Vargas hit sacrifice fly to center, Moreno scored.2–2
- 6Alexander singled to center, Carroll scored, Moreno to third.2–1
- 4Osuna reached on infield single to shortstop, Freeman scored on error, Osuna to second, Osuna safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Perdomo.2–0
- 3Langford hit sacrifice fly to center, Helman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML TEX -105 / ARI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +4 | TEX: Jacob Latz: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ARI: Nabil Crismatt: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +5 Elo | ARI 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 24th of 3030–40 | Road vs home | 34–3320th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149624th of 30 |
| 10th of 301522 | Elo rating | 151014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 74–65 | 71–68 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 35–39 | 30–46 |
| Underdog | 39–26 | 41–22 |
| Overs–unders | 63–76 | 71–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 9–8 ARI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.